9.18 - Napalm

Well it's no secret that I viewed this as the danger game. Nobody expected a 26 point debacle, but this one had too many factors moving against it in my opinion.

Schedule & Focus: Notre Dame was coming off two tough games against highly thought of opponents. Georgia Tech was a struggle and the Penn State game inexplicably became the hype game of the year for many. Meanwhile, Michigan was able to game plan for Notre Dame all summer. They opened up with Vanderbilt and Central Michigan. As I wrote last month, the odds were against Notre Dame going 3-0 to start the season.

One Game Motivation: This game actually reminded me of Notre Dame's 2004 win against UM. The Irish were drubbed the year before, pointed to that game all summer and were able to beat a pretty good Michigan football team before tanking the rest of the year.

Talented Depth: Michigan and Notre Dame both had experienced starters, but Notre Dame's black hole of recruiting from Ty's last year and Weis's first month leave the Irish with no margin for error. There simply aren't enough talented players on the field/pieces in the puzzle. We are paper thin with no one to push the starters to the next level. Our junior class has nine players left in it with exactly one starter. Not one player was a five star player and only one was, arguably, even a four star player. Our sophomore class has 14 players left and only three of those were highly recruited. None were elite players. In other words, COMBINED our sophomore and junior classes are far below almost any one class from another top program. We were one bad class away from a de facto death penalty.

The Hype: Normally I'm a fan of the hype, but it really seems to have affected Notre Dame. Some players appear complacent; others seem to be trying too hard. Something is off, we're not making plays.

All of those factors set the stage for a tough struggle against Michigan, but game time revealed a one dimensional Irish team not unlike the days of Diedrick. The Irish just can't run the ball and can't make teams pay for loading up against the pass and that is killing us. Contrary to popular belief, the defense didn't play that bad and Henne was perfect when he needed to be on two touchdown throws to the corner. If the offense had been able to move the ball at all, the defense would have looked much, much better. 14 of Michigan's points were scored by the defense. In other words, Notre Dame's offense outscored Michigan's defense by seven points. Turnovers are always key in a big game, but just like Penn State, some of ND's turnovers were dictated by Michigan dominance.

What this loss did do was burn off all of the overgrown expectations about this team that masked some realities most wanted to ignore.

• McKnight is a significant drop-off from Stovall. Not sure what's up from shark, but he's not getting separation. Stovall was our best receiver last year.
• Quinn is just off. That first interception was thrown high and behind. Mark this down. I think Clausen will be better than Quinn in this offense by his sophomore year. We have a nervous quarterback.
• We have zero game-breaking ability... which means if you're not controlling the clock on offense, no one's going to bail you out. We have no game-changers. We have little downfield capability.
• Our offensive line might be the weakest mentally that I've seen run-blocking. Here's where we desperately needed more numbers to knock the dead weight out of there. There isn't one OL in our junior classs. Not one. Top teams have sophomore and junior AA recruits as backups. We don't even have a junior OL recruit.
• Darius Walker is a fine complementary back, but I watched USC's freshmen the other night. They're simply at a different level. I believe Walker is a good counter type back, but ND needs to land someone that causes defensive coordinators to change their game plans to control. No one respects our running game.
• We need some shutdown players on defense. Hopefully Gray is a start.
• As someone opined on Rock's House yesterday, the Willingham "it's okay" influence is still pervasive.
• Why do we not try to block a punt? Zibby's a great threat, but we're not giving him adequate blocking. If we try to block a punt we might open something up. Neither West or Grimes is that fast... both are quick.
• I see many people writing about Weis's demeanor, good or bad, as if it matters. I believe he's been trying to project an air of confidence whether or not there are talent deficiencies. He refuses to make excuses, but that doesn't mean he truly thinks we're world beaters.

Notre Dame still has the ability to beat anybody, but there is just no margin for error on this team. If Quinn is off, the receivers drop balls and we have turnovers we could also lose to anybody right now. Michigan was primed for the win and Notre Dame was primed to be beaten. Congrats to the skunkbears... as a prize you get to keep Lloyd for another year.

~ The Rock